Fundstrat’s Thomas Lee: “Crypto Winter is Over” Has Been “Confirmed”
On Sunday, May 19, Co-Founder and Analyst at Fundstrat, Thomas Lee, revealed that the anticipated confirmation from Consensus 2019 has been given: “Crypto Winter is Over”. As seen in the tweet below, Lee also shared the 13 signs that led him to make said conclusions.
After a disturbing pullback to ~$6,200, #Bitcoin back >$8,000 further cementing positive trend intact.
As we said a few weeks ago, Consensus 2019 @coindesk was to prove whether crypto winter is over…
— Thomas Lee (@fundstrat) May 19, 2019
Here’s a quick summary of the 13 listed signs:
The first, dated November 2018, indicated of the BCH versus BSV fork war, which led to the “overhang” of BTC supply. This was supposedly followed by a crash in BTC’s price to as low as USD $3,200. A month later, Grayscale’s Bitcoin Investment Trust saw a 5% drop in its NAV premium (which is deemed the lowest for the year).
The beginning of 2019 (i.e. Jan 23), showed some signs of positivity shared Lee, as he disclosed that, “on-chain transactions per day turn positive YoY.” Two months later, news that Fundstrat’s Bitcoin Misery Index (BMI) exceeded 67 was revealed, a first since 2017.
Another first was revealed as Bitcoin closing above 200D in April 1 of this year, trailed by the appearance of Twitter user, @ParabolicTrav – signifying the coming out of a crypto hibernation (possibly). Following this is the publishing of, “Bitcoin in Heavy Accumulation,” which stressed how there’s growth in the number of BTC held in wallets.
Other activities that took place in April that possibly confirm the end of the crypto winter include increases in OTC volumes and on-chain activity, predictions indicating BTC’s bottom has been reached, and a moving average of 50D (which is > 200D).
As for the month of May, Lee noted factors like the market remaining stable amidst the famous “Bitfinex/ Tether and NY Attorney General’s court order” controversy and of course the recently provided confirmation are enough indicators.
Skepticism Exists Regardless
Although many are arguing that the bear market is officially coming to an end, an equal number of analysts, leaders and supporters are wary of the claims and arguments made. This was witnessed earlier in the comments as well.
In particular, Twitter User, Dave the Wave immediately asked the following:
“Why is a pullback to 6K considered disturbing after such a parabolic run? Even if it pulled back to 5K over the next two months or so, I don’t think this would invalidate the idea that ‘winter’ is over […] just that spring can be a bit changeable before summer.”
To which Lee responded,
“Countless point the dump to $6K as proof bear market alive and still dominant trend.”
News outlet, EWN also reported on this matter, and referenced Magic Poop Cannon, who is among many of the doubters of the soon-approaching bull run.
— MAGIC (@MagicPoopCannon) May 17, 2019
EWN summarized what the analyst had to say:
“Strong, correlated increases in the Money Flow Index (MFI) and Network Value to Transaction ratio (NVT) on the weekly chart have always preceded drops in the BTC price. In 2011, when the two indicators reached the peak of their range, a 93% correction ensued. In 2013, the two indictors hit overbought/overvalues ranges twice […] If history is any indication, Bitcoin may fall dramatically here.”
What are your thoughts on the overall market? Should Fundstrat’s claims be taken with certainty, or should we be hesitant based on past trends?
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